Digital Media Digest

Chris Anderson’s Long Tail Theory is under scrutiny, and both sides have reason to claim victory.  I’d be interested in Chris running his numbers again with data from iTunes and AmazonMP3.  If I had to guess, his 98% rule is overstated at best.  Keep in mind he was doing his research on data from 2004, which is way too early to develop a trend rule that will stand the test of time.  Regardless, after analyzing the data that I do have access to, I fully believe in the value of the “tail”, but I’ve come up with a series of x-factors that I believe were underestimated, ultimately leading to a 98% rule in question, and Long Tail under the microscope.

• Project Studio Proliferation in the 90s:
  • Creative and Financial filters were destroyed.
  • Music creation became affordable…not just consumption.
  • Supply increased exponentially.

• Digital Content Delivery Services:
  • Popularity of companies like CDBaby and Tunecore provide a quick and affordable way to deliver digital content to retailers like iTunes, AmazonMP3, and others.
  • Increased supply finds distribution

• The Internet:
  • Destroyed traditional distribution filters
  • Introduced a retail environment absent of scarcity.
  • Distribution products without demand became possible.
  • Consumers given access to their niche

• The Majors realize value in Digital Distribution:
  • Released a flood of product with little or diminishing demand into the market.  For example, out-of-print titles could be resurrected without the traditional costs of manufacturing, stocking, and distribution.
  • Streamline processes to make extend their “tail”.

I believe we will hit what I call a “Ground Zero” with audio content by 2010.  The Majors will have completed their catalog delivery and any pent up product still looking for distribution will have found it’s way into the digital marketplace.  By then, who knows what new technologies will be available or what challenges lie ahead.  I appreciate Anderson’s work in trendspotting and hope, for the sake of us all working in the industry, he will continue to keep his theory fluid, updated, and transparent.